TAMPA, Fla. ? After a 10-day, post-South Carolina slog characterized by relentless attacks on Newt Gingrich from Mitt Romney?s forces, Florida on Tuesday will vote in its 2012 Republican presidential primary.
With Romney and his associated super PAC outspending the Gingrich teams by a nearly five-to-one margin and blanketing the state airwaves with a barrage of negative TV ads, Gingrich never found his footing here, careening from one message to another without ever gaining traction.
Continue ReadingHere are POLITICO?s five things to watch from Florida as the polls close, at 7 p.m. local time in both the Eastern and Central Time Zones:
1) Mitt?s margin
Gingrich needs a close race more than Romney needs a blowout victory.
For the former House speaker, finishing a respectable second means he can explain away a loss by arguing that he was outspent and out-organized by a superior Romney organization that was already in place and with a 2008 run under its belt.
If Romney wins by a lot ? say, 12 points or more ? it?s likely to negate Gingrich?s victory in South Carolina, making that win about as useful a yardstick as Rick Santorum?s Iowa caucus triumph. And without any more scheduled debates until Feb. 22 in Arizona ? an event which Romney has not committed to attend ? Gingrich will be more reliant than ever on super PAC money to get him through to Super Tuesday.
All the available polling evidence suggests a comfortable Romney victory, the size of which will have a bearing on perceptions of Gingrich?s durability.
A Romney campaign adviser said Monday that Romney?s goal in Florida remains a six-to-eight point spread ? which tracks exactly with the final Public Policy Polling difference in the state ? with a double-digit victory being ?more than we had ever expected.?
At his campaign?s final event Monday at The Villages, Romney paid Gingrich the ultimate insult: After a day of wicked Gingrich attacks, Romney ignored him altogether.
2) Newt and women
The Romney campaign?s last hope in South Carolina was a big margin over Gingrich among women, but that turned out to be wishful thinking: Gingrich swept to victory across almost all significant demographic categories.
Gingrich skillfully shut down the issue of his ex-wife Marianne?s grievances during the CNN debate in Charleston, but the story may play differently among a Florida GOP electorate that is larger and more diverse than in South Carolina.
The good news for Gingrich is the story of his two divorces and his second wife?s allegations that he demanded an ?open marriage? didn?t come up in the Florida debates or campaign.
But even though the Romney campaign has stayed away from the divorce story, Romney and his campaign haven?t been subtle about highlighting the Romney family.
Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, in particular, has been an aggressive surrogate for Romney in pushing his pristine family story ? she hasn?t needed to overtly compare it to the Gingrich history to make her point.
Even Romney?s wife, Ann, who typically offers relatively apolitical but loving introductions of her husband, opened his first event in the state in Ormond Beach last weekend with a reminder of their family life.
?I want to remind you where we know our riches are,? she said. ?Our riches are with our families. It is the American way, and I am proud of my husband and I am proud of all the accomplishments he?s made in his life.?
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